July 03, 2008

The challenge of our real-time, multi-tasking world

I was sitting at my PC today, drafting my blog whilst skirting over the news headlines on my iGoogle homepage.

There were a few other windows open on my PC.

One for Wimbledon live on the BBC, which I can now watch through live streaming video. I like to listen to the radio commentary, so I also had BBC Radio 5 Live on my internet radio player, rather than listening to the BBC TV commentators.

I have a TV in my office as well and, as usual, I had that tuned into Bloomberg News to track the business and stock markets, with the sound on mute.

Anyway, I was happily clicking between iGoogle news, Internet TV-Radio and TV News whilst clattering away on the keyboard drafting this blog when my Skype phone went off.

Read more ...

July 02, 2008

Tipit provides payments on Twitter

After my blog entry about Germany losing Euro 2008 due to Twitter,  Techcrunch are reporting a new service, Tipit, that allows you to make payments with Twitter.  It actually doesn't though ... it just sends you a message to send the money you promised via PayPal. 

Even so, money via social apps are growing rapidly.  For example, at the turn of the year Facebook was reporting developing Payments Applications and, guess what? 

There are now quite a few, with the most popular being Spare Change.

Spare Change has almost 5,000 daily users today, and describes itself as: "the first integrated payments application on Facebook. Put a little money in your Spare Change account. Spend it on your favorite applications all over Facebook."

Interesting.

GSMA and EPC announce agreement on mobile payments

Following yesterday's dialogue about the long tail of banking being mobile focused, the EPC and GSMA announced a cooperative agreement for mobile payments this week.  Here's the press release:

GSMA Press Release 2008
GSMA Teams Up With European Payments Council
Alliance will accelerate deployment of mobile payment services

30th June 2008, London: The GSMA, the global trade body for the mobile industry, and the European Payments Council, which represents 8,000 banks in the European Union and EEA and Switzerland, are to work together to accelerate the deployment of services that enable consumers to pay for goods and services in shops, restaurants and other locations using their mobile phones.

Both the GSMA and the EPC envisage that this cross-industry cooperation will enable banks to deliver better mobile payments services to their customers, supported by mobile operators' infrastructure. These services will be facilitated by a ‘Trusted Service Manager', which will support banks and mobile operators in the distribution, configuration and activation of the bank's payment application on the UICC within users' NFC handsets. The GSMA, through its Pay-Buy-Mobile initiative, and the EPC will focus initially on defining a contractual framework document detailing the minimum set of requirements for a Trusted Service Manager to interface with banks and mobile operators.

"Together, the European Payments Council and the GSMA are well-placed to develop the tools our members need to deploy mobile payment services that will work internationally to the benefit of consumers," said Alex Sinclair, Chief Technology Officer of the GSMA. "We look forward to a productive working relationship with the EPC."

"We are convinced that this cross industry cooperation between GSMA and EPC is the best way forward for efficiently enabling the mobile as a channel for initiation of payments in SEPA, and this cooperation model could also be a model for other parts of the world," said Gerard Hartsink, Chairman of the EPC.

Following this announcement, Commissioner Reding and Commissioner McCreevy released an official response (pdf download) from the European Commission:

EU Commissioner for Internal Market and Services, Charlie McCreevy, and EU Telecoms Commissioner Viviane Reding welcomed the announcement today of GSMA, the global trade body for the mobile industry, and European Payments Council (EPC) to promote the use of mobile payment services. EPC and GSMA have agreed today to accelerate the deployment of services that enable consumers to pay for goods and services in shops, restaurants and other locations using their mobile phones.

“Bringing more competition to the payment services market has been my aim and agreements such as this show the possibilities that new technologies and innovative approaches offer in this regard” said Mr. McCreevy. "This is exactly what the Payment Services Directive, which comes into force at end of 2009, is designed to promote", he added.

"Voluntary industry agreements by the mobile industry are always welcome where they bring about concrete benefits of consumers and enhance the level-playing field for European companies in due respect of competition rules", said Commissioner Reding. "I therefore applaud today's announcement which should bring Europe to the forefront of mobile payments."

Mr. McCreevy recalled that a huge effort is being made by industry and stakeholders to create the conditions for a Single European Payments Area. In this regard he said that standards and requirements resulting from the agreement should be prepared in an open and transparent manner. "It is important that all stakeholders can have access to the process so that the outcome is of benefit to all." he said.

They shoot bankers don't they?

There’s a fascinating roundtable discussion in Prospect Magazine this month.

The discussion features:

  • Jonathan Ford, Deputy Editor of Prospect and Chair of the discussion;
  • Anatole Kaletsky, Economic Commentator and Associate Editor of the Times;
  • George Soros, Chairman of Soros Fund Management;
  • Mark Hannam, an independent who has previously worked for the Bank of England, Citibank and Barclays;
  • Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times; and
  • Sir John Gieve, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability at the Bank of England who stepped down shortly after this discussion took place.*

In light of Sir John Gieve’s departure, George Soros’s regular and outspoken depressing comments about the credit crunch, and the regular Economists’ Forum in the Financial Times led by Martin Wolf, this was bound to be an interesting dialogue.

It was, with George Soros saying we should shoot the directors of Bear Stearns and Citigroup.

Read more ...

July 01, 2008

Spain win Euro 2008 thanks to Twitter

Actually, it's the other way round: Germany lose Euro 2008 thanks to Twitter, according to CNet News.

If you're not familiar with Twitter,  it's a great way to communicate short messages and links and views, using SMS texting on mobile, blackberry, as well as short updates via Facebook or the internet to Twitter.

It's an aggregation of thought streams for the great and the good.

CNet take it a step further with the idea of Angela Merkel providing advice to the German team during the game in real-time, such as "Tell Torres, he's a girl".

Unfortunately, Twitter's reply service was down at the time, so the team got confused about why they should call him a girl and that allowed him to get past Lahm and dink the ball over Lehmann to score the only goal in the game.  The winning goal that is.

They take this on to illustrate other ideas, such as Gordon Brown twittering to our Olmpic racers that they should "imagine they are being chased by Margaret Thatcher".  That'll make them run faster.

I'm just wondering what Alan Sugar of The Apprentice: You're fired would Twitter to Gordon Brown?

The Long Tail of Banking

Aneace Haddad has asked me to explain more about my idea of a Long Tail in Banking.

 

The Long Tail in banking would be a mass market of niche microgroups that incur no cost overheads to manage but, for each transaction, creates a small profit. As the mass of niche transactions build, the small profits become big profits. This is not far off what banking does anyway – processes massive volumes of small transactions – but, right now, we focus upon making money out of account management.


Account management involves staff to deal with the customer onboarding process, KYC and AML requirements, service on the telephone and in branch, as well as transaction processing and account maintenance.


However, in the case of the long tail of banking, there are no accounts. You want to reach people who were previously underserved, because it would not be profitable. Using technologies such as the internet means that, today, you can serve them. You can serve them because there are no people involved, no account onboarding process, no branches or telephone support services, and no account maintenance costs.


So, are we talking about the unbanked?


Yes, but a whole lot more.


We are talking about children, students, the unbanked, the underbanked, the grey market, the welfare market, the pensioners, the migrant workers and more. And we are talking about social lending and saving, PayPal, prepaid and mobile.


Social lending sites, such as Zopa and Prosper, are connecting the long tail of savers and borrowers.  This is best demonstrated by Kiva, where anyone can invest a few dollars in microfinancing people globally.  A global connection of niche players.  I've blogged about these sites before, but they show one aspect of internet financing that is based around a long tail model.


PayPal is an even better example of showing a great way to create profits out of the Long Tail, although its reach goes far beyond the long tail.


As mentioned yesterday, PayPal provides a method of moving money between people globally in multicurrency at low cost. PayPal claim to reach out to over 160 million registered users, with one in three requested at least one payments transaction every quarter. PayPal make their profits and revenues by charging a $0.30 flat fee per transaction as well as a variable percentage of 4.9%, reducing to 1.9% or 2.9% for Premier and Business Accounts respectively. There are also fees for cross-border transactions.


The real secret of PayPal’s operation is that:


(a) it builds on the existing bank network, as you have to have a bank account to use PayPal; and

(b) an email saying “you’ve got money” makes people open accounts.


The overall result is that PayPal’s model has increased reach and breadth immensely by linking people to money using viral networking. They do reach the long tail through this structure but, in terms of the long tail, they also have a major restriction. You have to have a bank account and proof of identity to move monies around with PayPal.


So there’s a barrier for some of the children, students, unbanked, underbanked, grey market, welfare market, pensioners and migrant workers.


So we need to look at prepaid and mobile for these folks.


Prepaid provides a great way to reach the unbanked and underbanked, as mentioned last week.


In one of the best examples of a prepaid programme, migrant workers in the United Arab Emirates, working on their massive construction projects, are receiving their weekly and monthly wages on prepaid cards.


They can get cash and pay for stuff around Dubai without a bank account, and the beauty of this card programme is that it comes preloaded with one cross-border money transfer per payment period for free.

Migrant workers can receive their monies and send money home painlessly.


Prepaid for kids as gift cards, or for students as a budgeting method due to weekly restrictions on balance limits of usage, or for government welfare and company benefits is seen as one of the strongest markets for reaching the long tail of finance.


However, there is still a restriction here.


To get cash, you have a habitual movement of people that creates a criminal focus.


I only discovered this one recently, and it was the idea of moving monies around on cards that highlighted an issue.


The issue is that in countries where the criminal fraternity are represented typically by gentlemen with large muscles or big guns, receiving money on a card is a problem. The problem is that you have to go somewhere to get the card, and then convert the card into cash.


Apparently, for example, many people would know that they were getting a prepaid card on a Friday morning from their offspring overseas. So they would toddle down to the Post Office on a Friday morning, pick up their post with their prepaid card, and then go straight to the cash machine and convert the card into cash. As they walk out of their Post Office with their lovely lolly, the men with big muscles and large guns jump out from behind the nearest lamppost and nick the dosh off them.


Whoops. I apologise as I’m getting a little colloquial here.


The point, I am told, is that card payments create physical movements that can be tracked and targeted by criminals.


And so we come to mobile. 


Mobile overcomes the issue because you do not have to go and physically get a card and then translate that card into money.  You can receive a mobile payment anytime, day or night, and then use the money flexibly either on your mobile account or as cash, but not by always going to the same place at the same time, every week or month.


Mobile overcomes these issues because:


  • almost everyone has one, or can get access to one,
  • you do not need to have a bank account to have a mobile,
  • mobile technology is cheap to access and easy to use,
  • mobile builds upon internet technologies to become even cheaper to access through VOIP
  • you can move monies wirelessly, silently and easily between people
  • the money movements do not create physical movements that are necessarily habitual and tracked by criminals
  • mobile is global 


... one could go on and on.


Whether you prefer mobile or prepaid as your focus, they combine to create the real long-tail of banking. Mobile and prepaid can reach one and all, with micropayments that do not add overhead to the bank infrastructure, but can build volume for small transaction fees on each transaction.


Suddenly, the billions of unbanked and underbanked, the long tail of society, can be served through the financial system at virtually zero cost overhead, with margins that are attractive enough through micropercentage fees on microtransactions.  Billions and zillions of microtransactions.


Think about it.


If Amazon and iTunes can make 40% of their profits from the zero overheads of stocking the zillionth book and song, then banks can make profits from the zero overheads of processing payments transactions through internet, prepaid and mobile on the banking network.


That’s something that rings of the long tail of banking isn’t it?

June 30, 2008

PayPal’s Tenth Anniversary

I wrote an indepth analysis eighteen months ago about PayPal’s 100 months birthday and now they’re celebrating their official tenth anniversary, so I thought I would add a small addendum. Although I say it’s a small addendum, it’s quite an interesting one.

Basically, I was updating some old slides about PayPal and thought that I should track their number of users over the years, as they do publish these numbers. First of all, I looked up the last published quarterly results from PayPal on the eBay website.

In their latest company presentation, published June 16th, they have these figures:

  • PayPal operates in 190 markets using 17 currencies
  • A third of people in the UK have a PayPal account
  • Over 100,000 websites accept PayPal in Europe

Read more ...

June 29, 2008

Arguing about the Head and the Tail

Anita Elberse has created a great discussion in the Harvard Business Review this week about the Long Tail, the theory expounded by Chris Anderson, editor of Wired Magazine. 

The theory goes that you can make as much money as an online retailer from the 80% of specialised products that sell occasionally, the tail, as retail merchants make from focusing upon the limited best-sellers in the head of the sales line.

Anita states:

"In 2006 just 20% of Grand Central’s (book publisher) titles accounted for roughly 80% of its sales and an even larger share of its profits."

She also goes on to look at Rhapsody, the online music store, and finds:

"The top 10% of titles accounted for 78% of all plays, and the top 1% of titles for 32% of all plays."

As a result, she concludes that:

"For Chris Anderson, the strategic implications of the digital environment seem clear. 'The companies that will prosper,' he declares, 'will be those that switch out of lowest-common-denominator mode and figure out how to address niches.' But my research indicates otherwise."

Chris Anderson has already posted a response on his blog:

"She finds the top 10% of titles (out of more than a million in that data sample) accounted for 78% of all plays, and the top 1% account for 32% of all plays. That sounds pretty concentrated around the head, until you reflect, as she notes, that 'one percent of a million is still 10,000--[...]equal to the entire music inventory of a typical Wal-Mart store.' 

"This is a good moment to remind everyone of the normal definition of 'head' and 'tail' in entertainment markets such as music. 'Head' is the selection available in the largest bricks-and-mortar retailer in the market (that would be Wal-Mart in this case). 'Tail' is everything else, most of which is only available online, where there is unlimited shelf space. 

"So in the data she cites, the head of the online music market represents 32% of the all plays, and the tail represents 68%.  That's certainly no challenge to the Long Tail theory; indeed, it's even more tail-heavy than the data I cited in my book (probably because I used a more generous estimate of 50,000 tracks for Wal-Mart's inventory)."

Nothing like a good argument is there?

Why am I bothered?

First, because the Long Tail is an important theory about modern retailing.

Second, because it plays to the heart of online channels and why we virally network socially through blogs and virals in a networked world.

Third, and most important for readers in banks, is that there is a Long Tail in banking that's emerging through prepaid cards and mobile telephones.  Take note of the views of both Anita and Chris, as they are crticial discussions in how to make money in these markets.

June 27, 2008

Fortress Europe's Independence Day?

I attended a long discussion yesterday about High Value Payments (HVP).

I wondered why we even bothered to discuss and delineate between Low Value Payments (LVP) and HVP these days. Surely, we should just talk about Real-Time Payments (RTP), near RTP (sub two hours) and D+n. Alternatively, urgent versus non-urgent with T+n, dependent upon your view of the world.

Having introduced enough acronyms in my opening paragraph to confuse a rocket scientist, I think I can see why we talk about HVP versus LVP … it makes us sound more interesting and knowledgeable.

Read more ...

June 26, 2008

Who knows their IBAN and BIC?

A question came up in today’s EBA sessions for Joe Pawelczyk, Vice President for International Relations at CHIPS, the American Clearing House for over $2 trillion of wire payments each day. The question seemed quite simple: “Why doesn’t America use IBANs for their bank account numbers, as all of Europe has now standardised on this?”

Joe looked a bit non-plussed and piped up with: “Because we cannot define a stadnardised account number.”

Well, a standardised account number is an IBAN (International Bank Account Number) and BIC (Bank Identifier Code) isn’t it?

Oh wait.

I just noticed.

IBANs and BICs are not standardised.

Read more ...

June 25, 2008

Zimbabwe keeps going thanks to remittances

According to a press release from the International Association of Money Transfer Networks, Zimbabwe's economy keeps going thanks to mobile remittances, even with an economy where inflation is currently running at two million percent and is expected to reach six million percent by the end of June.

Less than 10% of the population is employed and a huge food crisis looms ahead.

The answer is that the remittance market has been the lifeline for thousands in Zimbabwe.

A remittance company operating in Zimbabwe says that up to US$1.5m a day moves into the country in remittances. Western Union is the principal company but can only operate with the blessing of the Reserve Bank. The rest operate on the 'parallel' market, meaning the financial market running at the true value of the Zimbabwean dollar, rather than the declared Government rate of exchange, which today is running at 50% of the market rate.

The parallel market has been allowed informally by the Government to function being a useful source of badly needed foreign exchange. Remittance operators sell their foreign exchange to the Reserve Bank in exchange for Zimbabwe dollars at exceptionally good rates - in effect colluding with those who seek to destroy them.

Not surprisingly normal money transfer channels have suffered - as huge swathes of regular clients have moved to the unregulated systems. Apart from the fact they get a better rate of exchange, under the normal KYC rules they have also been fearful that their identities would be passed to the Government which at a time of intimidation and retribution could bring danger to themselves and their families.

Prepaid – just another payment type?

I have been attending a conference on Prepaid this week, one of the largest of its kind with over 300 delegates all focused upon this burgeoning market. The fact so many are attending says something, and most of these attendees appear to be from organisations other than banks. Transit authorities, mobile telephones operators, governments, utilities, retailers ... oh yes, and MasterCard, Visa and AMEX.

Initially, I thought: what's the big deal about prepaid? It's just another payment type, like credit and debit isn't it?

Well, maybe not.

Read more ...

June 24, 2008

You can’t hide anything anymore

A year ago, Wired magazine had the front page headline: Get Naked. It made me buy the magazine and turned out to be a fascinating article all about how the world is now transparent. Nothing can be controlled or hidden anymore. You cannot keep anything secret. It will all get out there somehow, some way.

Since this article, I’ve noticed how true this is. Embarrassed politicians, corrupt traders, covert chief executives and their cohorts should all be afraid. Very afraid.

You cannot hide anything anymore. Information will out, whether it be through Facebook, blogs, emails, instant messaging, chatrooms, text messages … you name it. Information will out.

Here are a few examples of how disruptive these trends are proving to be.

Read more ...

June 23, 2008

Europe lacks a Leader

I don’t write about politics, because I am not a political creature. However, I felt compelled to write about this subject after Europe’s soul-searching over its identity since the Irish threw out the EU Treaty.

The fact that the Constitution and the Treaty are unwanted does not de-stabilise our banking efforts under the Payment Services Directive and SEPA, or does it? 

The fact that citizens do not want more European integration, and are happy to just have EMU, is fine for those creating the Eurozone, isn't it?

Read more ...

June 20, 2008

An Oyster that’s a Diamond, London’s Contactless System

Intriguing discussions today about the Oyster Card in London.

This is the contactless card operated by Transport for London (TfL) to allow everyone to travel across the London public transport system without using cash. It’s basically a prepaid contactless card, like the Octopus Card in Hong Kong or the New York Subway Card.

Oyster was launched in 2003, and I love stats so here’s a few from Transport for London (TfL).

Read more ...

June 19, 2008

Exchanges fight over speeds and feeds misses the point

It is fascinating to watch the fight that is going on between the traditional exchanges – Deutsche Bourse, Euronext and London Stock Exchange (LSE) – and the new guys – Chi-x, BAT, virt-x, PLUSMarkets, Boat, Turquoise, NYFix Millennium, NASDAQ OMX, Equiduct …

The fight is over liquidity, trading, order execution, pricing, clearing and settlement.

In fact, on that note, we should throw in LCH.Clearnet, Clearstream and Euroclear in their battles with EuroCCP, Rainbow and friends.

There is no doubt that MiFID has been a trigger for change, although the resulting changes are yet to be seen. In other words, we are seeing change, but just do not know the long-term landscape, winners and losers as yet.

The reason for mentioning this today is two-fold.

First, LSE came out yesterday saying that the new guys had to fight on some other ground than latency. Second, Turquoise’s leadership – Eli Lederman, CEO and Adrian Farnham, COO – are addressing the Financial Services Club next Thursday with their views of what it takes to win in the future.

Read more ...

June 18, 2008

EBAday, Stagflation and Survival of the Fittest

EBAday, or is that days as it is now 2 days, is upon us next week. This is the annual jamboree for the Euro Bankers Association to celebrate the arrival of SEPA, after much anticipation since EBA days started three years ago.

This year it is in Helsinki on Wednesday and Thursday of next week, and I have the honour to chair the plenary session with Werner Steinmüller, Head of Global Transaction Banking at Deutsche Bank, and Mark Garvin, Chairman of JPMorgan Treasury & Securities Services International. Coincidentally, these are the two sponsor firms of EBAday this year.

In planning this plenary session, we have discussed a few ideas and decided to get away from SEPA specifics, as that’s covered in all the other sessions, and talk about the big picture. And the big picture focuses upon how the markets have changed since the last EBAday in Rome last year.

Read more ...

June 17, 2008

Mobile phones do fry the brains

Conclusive proof that mobile phones do fry the brains ...

... or is this a viral video to promote popcorn eating?

In case you're wondering why I posted this, it's because this video has been copied around the world.  There are videos on YouTube that show similar experiences in Asia and America. 

The original French video has been watched by over 3 million people in 10 days. 

It's making headline news in the media too and shows that you really must be more aware of using the mobile and, ideally, wear a wireless headset.

The trouble is that if you try to pop popcorn using your mobile at home with your mates, then nothing happens. 

Maybe that's because this is just a spoof video made by a wireless headset manufacturer called CardoSystems.

There's a marketing lesson in there.

I.T. Architectures: why Technologists have lost the plot

It’s really tough dealing with technologists.

It is like the old discussion of the businessman in the hot-air balloon who is lost. He spies a chap on the ground and asks if he knows where he is.

The guy looks up and says, “you are about 35 feet in the air, supported by a vehicle comprising cloth and ropes, and filled with helium.”

The business man looks puzzled and says, “you must be a technologist.”

“Wow”, the guy says. “I am. How did you know?”

“Because what you have told me is technically accurate, but of absolutely no use to anyone.”

“Ah”, says the guy. “You must be a businessman.”

“I am”, says the businessman, “but how did you know.”

“Because I was minding my own business and you asked me to help you out, so I gave you assistance in the best way I could, and now you blame me for the mess you’re in.”

Ouch. Business and technology folks really don’t get on well.

Read more ...

June 16, 2008

Payments fraud: the word from the Fed

There was a lot of buzz around this year’s Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Payments Conference, “Payments Fraud: Perception versus Reality”.

First, there’s the sheer numbers involved. For example, it is estimated that each year $3.5 billion worth of chargeback losses occur in the USA through fraudulent transactions, according to Orbitz.

Bruce Cundiff of Javelin Research had some particularly interesting stats, that show identity fraud is on the decline in the USA from 10.1 million cases in 2003 to 8.1 million today, with the cost reducing 12% during this period from $56 billion to $45 billion. Ouch! $45 billion losses through identity fraud is still pretty steep, with the average amount defrauded in each case coming in at just over $5,500.

Read more ...

June 13, 2008

Governments will force us into biometric banking

Picking up on one of the points made in the debate this week about identity and authentication that it is the government’s responsibility to manage identities, I was kind of surprised by this view. This view stated that banks have no control over identities because governments issue identities in the form of passports, driving licences and social security numbers. Therefore, it is the government’s role to protect identity and ensure that unique identities are provided to citizens.

This was called a ‘cop-out’ during the debate, namely that we are abrogating our responsibilities if we think that it is governments who should manage identities. 

But I think there is a more important point being made here. 

Governments are forcing us into biometric banking.

Read more ...

June 11, 2008

This house believes our authentication and identification methods work

Last night’s debate, “This house believes our current authentication and identification methods are good enough” was a healthy one,  focusing primarily upon card authentication in retail transactions.

But was the motion carried or rejected?

All those in favour?  All those against?

Read more ...

June 10, 2008

Digital Identities? We haven't got a clue!

Today is a day that’s all about authentication, identification and verification.

First, I have been asked to make a speech at a payments conference all about how to minimise risk; and, second, we have a meeting of the Financial Services Club this evening, in the form of an Oxford Society style Debate with the motion: “This house believes our current authentication and identification systems are good enough”.

I’ll report on the latter topic tomorrow, but thought I would write a summary of my speech just to see how it plays out.

Read more ...

June 09, 2008

Are banks really responsible for the oil crisis?

With oil prices falling to as low as $10 a barrel in 1998, rising to $72 in 2007 and now hitting $139 on Friday, what is happening? Forecasters are now saying that oil may break over the $200 per barrel price barrier before the end of the year. Will this bubble never burst?

Sure it will, but in the meantime everyone is laying blame on someone else.

UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown blames the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC. What a load of baloney. OPEC were responsible for price-fixing and shorting production in the 1970's, which caused the last crisis, but now these countries produce only about 4 in 10 barrels. If anything, OPEC has tried to maintain fair pricing for the past three decades, rather than fixing.

OPEC therefore blames the Federal Reserve's policies on the dollar in light of the credit crisis. Did Greenspan and Bernanke mess up this badly? Some would say yes, as the price of oil bounces unendingly upwards on each day of bad news USA. Friday's spike up was caused by the sharpest one-month rise in American unemployment rates since 1986.

But then the Fed and other investors, such as George Soros, blame speculators and hedge funds. Everyone's trying to make a quick buck out of commodities such as oil and gold in light of the credit crunch.

So who's right and who's wrong?

Read more ...

June 07, 2008

The best call centre sketch ever

I've seen lots of call centre comic moments, but this one made me laugh out loud, and I mean LOUD. 

Starring David Schwimmer and Simon Pegg, the 2006 film Big Nothing has this little 4-minute skitt:

I'm sure that all those Mumbai, Manila and Guangzhou call centre operators, as well as those in Manchester and Minneapolis, will relate to this.

June 06, 2008

Banks versus Consumers - who wins?

Front Page of Business Week today: Banks versus Consumers - who wins?

The focus is upon credit cards and debt collections and, with American credit-card debt hitting a record high of $957 billion in Q1 2008, up 8% from the previous year, according to Federal Reserve data, this is a growing market.   One of the market leaders in debt collections is the National Arbitration Forum (NAF), used by many banks to chase up delinquent accounts.

The article then goes into a few statistics:

  • NAF handled 33,933 collection arbitrations in California, from January 2003 through March, 2007; of the 18,075 that weren't dropped by creditors, otherwise dismissed, or settled, consumers won just 30, or 0.002%, of these cases; 
  • NAF employs 1,700 freelance arbitrators - mostly moonlighting lawyers and retired judges - who handle some 200,000 cases a year, most of them concerning consumer debt; and
  • NAF’s presentation to clients tells them that, in cases in which an award or order is granted, 93.7% are decided without consumers ever responding and that only 0.3% of consumers ask for a hearing (the rest just tussle through the debate via mail).

As a result NAF is becoming the target of a legal action with consumers claiming that rather than arbitrating, they are purely acting on behalf of banks. For example, 1,400 Virginia residents claimed that they had been promised, in writing, that they could appear at hearings before an NAF arbitrator but that the law firm representing NAF, Wolpoff & Abramson, failed to arrange the hearings. The case was settled in favour of the residents.

Interesting article.

June 05, 2008

The fragmentation of everything

In the theme of dialogue about our changing world, the conversations continued with my USA friends about how hard it is to get the marketing right these days. They lamented the fact that their marketing team are so traditional that they still wait until the brochure is perfect for mailing before posting details on the internet.

The problem with this is that the internet costs you nothing, and you can post anything immediately, and then change and evolve it in real time. Who needs brochures?

Read more ...

June 04, 2008

Hey, why don't we cost cut our way to growth?

I spent yesterday discussing themes for a major conference in the USA later this year.

My American friend was a bit down on it all ... but then that’s not surprising when Ken Thompson, one of the most respected retail bankers in the USA until this year, had been asked to step down from Wachovia. Rumours are rife of a takeover bid for Wachovia from Santander or some other non-domestic bank. Combine this with the step down of Kerry Killinger as Chairman of WaMu, and Standard & Poor’s downgrading of Merrill Lynch, Lehmans and other big name bank stocks, and it’s not been a good week for American banking.

Again.

So my colleague was pretty down about the prospects for tradeshows later in the year.

He made it clear that big, strategic themes, such as innovation and disruptive strategies, were off the agenda. When banks are fighting for survival, the last thing they are going to think about is big picture ideas. They want practical ideas to survive.

I must admit, I can understand this mentality, even though I don't agree with it.

Read more ...

June 03, 2008

Citi Identity Theft open to interpretation

I really liked Citibank's US ad campaign against identity theft that ran through 2006, and used many of the ads in presentations to discuss the implications of ID theft.  If you haven't seen the ads, here's one of the best ones:

But then, in this age of user generated entertainment, there's always some joker out there who makes a spoof version.  I couldn't help posting this, not because it has a go at Citi, but because it just shows you can't do anything anymore without someone taking the P.

Actually, seeing this spoof, maybe Citibank's identity is being stolen in some perverse kickback?

SWIFT maps - a road to somewhere?

I've been asked by a few folks to comment on the Investment Roadmap that SWIFT is pulling together with FIX Protocol Ltd (FPL), the Financial products Markup Language (FpML) and the International Securities Association for Institutional Trade Communication (ISITC).

I was going to comment on this roadmap, but restrained myself due to a fairly cynical view expressed by a fellow blogger, and because I wanted to wait to see some action or outputs. However, after several people in the SWIFT community asked me to express a view, here’s my twopenneth worth.

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June 02, 2008

Can regulators really make markets more stable?

I found myself sceptically smiling when reading that the Financial Stability Forum is going to make the banking world safer by:

  • Strengthening prudential oversight of capital, liquidity and risk management;
  • Enhancing transparency and valuation;
  • Changing the role and uses of credit ratings;
  • Strengthening the authorities’ responsiveness to risks; and
  • Ensuring there are robust arrangements for dealing with stress in the financial system.

You can read the full report of what they proposed to G7 ministers here.

Why was I smiling sceptically?

Because regulators do not make the markets safer.  If anything, regulators make financial markets less safe.

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May 30, 2008

Upgrade, evolve or demolish

As you walk the streets of Rome, you find modern and ancient intertwined. The streets are full of gorgeous clothes from designers ranging from Salvatore Ferragano to Versace, Louis Vuitton to Gucci, Prada to Armani. All the names are here in beautifully presented shops that ooze money.

These shops are squeezed into streets laid with tiles and cobbles that date back over 2,000 years. The shops and office blocks are often built upon tombs and temples, where the new Rome sits on top of the old.

These thoughts ran through my head as I sat at the conference this week where we had a number of presentations about upgrades and releases of core software systems. The firm hosting the conference produces a new release every year, and is now on Release 9. They spent hours in the opening keynote discussing the latest features, capabilities, functions and specifications of the new product.

It is not a product I use, so much of it went over my head, but I was struck by one thought.

Why do customers need to upgrade to a new release?

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May 29, 2008

What have the Romans ever done for us?