Is 2007 the year Microsoft committed suicide?
This is my final week
of blogging for 2007, and so I thought I'd spend it looking back over
the year. Tomorrow and the rest of the week, I'll focus upon retail
and investment banking and payments. Today, I thought I'd start with a
slow burn with the prediction that, unless they urgently change their
ways, 2007 was the year that Microsoft committed suicide. By the way, I know that suicide is an emotive word but I'm picking up on this year's most successful song Beautiful Girls by Sean Kingston, which has the cheerful refrain "That's why it'll never work, you'll have me suicidal, suicidal, suicidal..." I
also need to warn you that this blog entry is long, but it needs to be
in order to explain my logic. Therefore, if you've clicked on this
blog for a one-minute read, you may want to go away and come back when
you've got ten minutes. Just warning you. Lastly, before we
start, I need to make clear that these are just my views, not
Finextra's or anyone else's, just in case a legal eagle somewhere wants
to take issue. OK, here we go. The reason 2007 is the
year that Microsoft committed suicide is down to the release of Vista
and Office 2007, both of which are more holey than a block of Swiss
Cheese. However, this blog is not ranting about how awful these
products are, but to explain why they are going to be the death of
Microsoft Corporation. Vista has lots of issues, such as
forcing its users to reconfigure, relearn and repurchase all of their
existing PC accessories. This is because most of those accessories
were developed pre-Vista and Vista has rendered them useless as they
are only compatible with Windows XP and before. I've blogged about this before. Howsabout Office 2007 then? Office
2007, which incorporates critical business accessories such as Outlook,
Word, PowerPoint and Excel, has also proven to be a source of
annoyance. Mind you, only for those who have used Microsoft systems in
the past: their loyal customers in other words. It is fine for anyone
who's never had a PC before: the iPod user, who might just buy an Apple
Mac. Office 2007 irritates because it has a totally different
interface to previous versions of Office. Therefore, you lose all of
your familiar commands and menus and have to learn a new way of working
completely. Bear in mind that my system, which came from Dell, arrived
with no Office 2007 manuals either, just online directories. Hence, it
has been frustrating to use, as you often find yourself stuck in Word
or PowerPoint with no access to the internet to find the answer. More
on this later. Then you find that this is just the start, as
Office 2007 is totally incompatible with previous versions of Office.
In practice, this means that anyone not using Office 2007 is
unable to read or even open and access your documents, unless the
receiver has downloaded a Microsoft conversion file beforehand. The
result is that Office 2007 users have to convert every single document they send out via email to Office 2003 beforehand, if they want to guarantee widespread access. Even then, Office 2007 is not reverse compatible. For example, PowerPoint 2007 presentation formats get messed up when using Slide Show.
Practically, this means that every time you make a presentation, even
when you've converted the PowerPoint 2007 file to a PowerPoint 2003
file and loaded Microsoft's conversion software, all the slide fonts
auto-enlarge and make the presentation look like a load of shitaki
mushrooms. For all these reasons, you can see why Microsoft, like
some banks, has moved from trusted platform to untrusted in 2007. In
fact, Northern Rock looks positively good by comparison. Now you may say "Chris, you're being a bit harsh", but look at (a) Peter's comments on his Mac; and (b) my original and follow-up
blogs about Vista, which forced me to buy a new iPod, Router and other
hardware and software. So yes, I am being harsh and would make
allowances if I were a beta tester or early adopter, but this product
has been available as a full release for a year and should not be in
this state. The final straw, and the reason for this blog
stating that 2007 is the year Microsoft committed suicide, is that the
new Vista PC hangs on a regular basis. I've kind of gotten used
to this as it just means that you have to wait patiently until it sorts
itself out, which often takes minutes. I've found a good cup of tea,
making Loster Thermador, reading Lord of the Rings from
cover-to-cover, followed by a short double marathon jog around the
block, is long enough for Vista to usually resolve such issues. CTRL-ALT-DEL and crash the program is a good alternative. What has proven to be more concerning is that Vista regularly just stops accessing the internet. For example, you arrive at the desk in the morning and all seems fine. Then click. "Windows Explorer cannot access the internet ... diagnose the problem". No idea. "Firefox cannot access the internet ... try again". Nope. Reboot. All is fine. Trouble
is that not everyone wants to be forced to reboot every day, as it's
not only a pain but you lose links and things you were working on. So
ever since I got my new PC, I've been reconfiguring, reloading,
disabling and re-enabling, doing the hokey-cokey and turning around to
fix this problem, but still no joy. It just always decides to drop
internet access at least once a day. Even worse, this problem
can actually occur during the day in the middle of a critical work
moment, such as when you're on eBay and about to nab that beautiful
little plastic donkey, y'know the one with the purple polka dots and
big ears, as a present for Niece Annie in Aberdeen. Then clunk and
there's no click. Just a message: "Windows Explorer cannot access the
internet". So I googled "Vista internet stops daily" over the weekend and, after going through various technical support threads, I found this one that referred me to Microsoft page: http://support.microsoft.com/kb/927168, which was updated at the end of November. Now, as Michael Caine would say not a lot of people know this,
I started my life as a programmer on an IBM mainframe system, learning
JCL, PL/1, BASIC, COBOL and all sorts of other ancient programs. I was
a programmer and technical support engineer in my early life. After
a few years in the programming dungeons, I was certified to be released
to rejoin society and the big wide world of human beings and, although
a little rusty, my technical know-how is not bad. Even so, here's a
summary of what this Microsoft page says: TCP traffic stops after you enable both receive-side scaling and Internet Connection Sharing in Windows Vista SYMPTOMS After
you enable both receive-side scaling and Internet Connection Sharing,
TCP traffic stops. For example, the ping command does not work. CAUSE This problem occurs because receive-side scaling and Internet Connection Sharing are mutually exclusive. RESOLUTION To
resolve this problem, disable either receive-side scaling or Internet
Connection Sharing. Do not enable both receive-side scaling and
Internet Connection Sharing at the same time. STATUS Microsoft has confirmed that this is a problem. MORE INFORMATION To determine whether receive-side scaling is enabled in Windows Vista, type the following command at a command prompt: netsh interface tcp show global Output that resembles the following will appear: Querying active state... TCP Global Parameters ---------------------------------------------- Receive-Side Scaling State : enabled [...] To disable receive-side scaling, type the following command at a command prompt: netsh interface tcp set global rss=disabled As
I say, my techno skills are a little rusty, but what this appears to be
saying is that Microsoft knows that the internet goes down on Vista all
the time, "TCP traffic stops". This issue occurs every day. "That's why it'll never work, you'll have me suicidal, suicidal, suicidal..." In their own diagnosis, the fault is due to the Receive-Side Scaling
system which is mutually exclusive with Internet Connection Sharing.
I'm sure your average home user can absorb the implications of this. Even
if the user does find out, it's nice to see how it is articulated in
such obvious layman's language, as Vista is software designed for
business users, multimedia gamers, home users and kids, isn't it? It
is designed to be not just user-friendly but blindingly easy-to-use,
isn't it? Or maybe I am just a digital alien and having a Close
Encounter of the Microsoft Kind? And whether this is the
resolution for my issue or not is actually irrelevant. It's the fact
that the dumb user schmuck like me, who has spent months cursing his
darned computer for being useless, has to be even faced with this issue
that is my beef. So, I have at least ten questions for Microsoft, which are: The last point is the bottom-line for Microsoft. I
mean to release a Microsoft system that's not compatible with most
existing hardware and software is incompetent, to release a Microsoft
product that is not even compatible with most existing Microsoft
products is disastrous, but to release a core system that appears to be not even compatible with the internet is fatal. It
may have been OK in the 1990s, when they last planned a major market
upheaval with Windows XP, but in 2007 it is unacceptable. The
difference is that in the 1990s, PC's were purchased with three to five
year write-downs on the investment; today, PC's are given away with
broadband contracts. As a result, you can switch to someone else fast.
In the 1990s, the world was dominated by Microsoft; in 2007, it's
Google. In the 1990s, you were happy to live in a dial-up world of 28
kbps and wait ten minutes for a one-line email to send; in 2007, if you
wait more than 28 seconds you click onto another website. Microsoft will of course respond that things don't work this way. "That's why it'll never work, you'll have me suicidal, suicidal, suicidal..." Microsoft
could argue, for example, that they have the blinding loyalty of banks,
corporates and governments. Apple is for consumers and artists; Linux
for rebels and mavericks. Only Microsoft is for businesses and
professionals. That was also true twenty years ago but, today,
most businesses want to put their professionals at home or on the
road. Therefore, again, such thinking is incorrect as the mentality
above is one for the office of 1990, not 2010. The office of 2010 is
full of hotel style hotdesks, with professionals popping in and out and
working from home as often as naught. And you can't have the IT
department being run out to 42 Thunder Road, Outer Nebraska every five
minutes, just because Vista is playing up again. They may respond by saying, "Chris, you're an idiot as it's obvious what the technical issue is here".
That doesn't rub because, more importantly, if consumers are idiots who
cannot sort out Microsoft's bugs, then consumers will not only blog
about it - like I am here - but transactions will also be impacted
negatively by Vista. How will businesses react to that? This is to my
point in Question 7 above: What impact is this having on business-to-business and business-to-consumer commerce? If
you are making a high value consumer transaction (more than $1,000) and
the PC loses internet access at a critical point due to Vista, whose
fault is that? Who do you blame and who will be accountable for any
losses incurred? They may say, "but it's only you" and I
would respond by saying I've got more than one Vista PC, the other one
does not have these issues, but based upon various sources and
googling, I am far from alone in the issues I mention. For example,
every conference I go to these days - and I go to a lot - has someone
whose PowerPoint is messed up for the reasons I mentioned at the start. They may say, "It's just a little blip" but
it's one that is now a year old and still a burning platform.
Microsoft's business model is based upon people regularly upgrading to
new releases as, otherwise, how do they create new revenues. If
everyone sticks with XP and Office 2003, they're stuffed. However, if
the news goes around that Vista and Office 2007 is holier than Swiss
Cheese, then they're stuffed again. It's a lose-lose. "That's why it'll never work, you'll have me suicidal, suicidal, suicidal..." For
two decades, Microsoft's strength has been their domination of the PC
platform as a standard operating system and applications environment
for business communications. By doing what they've done with Vista and
Office 2007, as in rushing out a completely new system that is unready
and unfinished, in fact it appears to me to be non-standard and
proprietary, they have shot themselves in the foot. What will happen
as a result, is that Microsoft will have their best year in their
corporate history in 2007. They will have bumper profits and super revenues. They will appear to be doing great. What? The
record revenue year of 2007 will be because squillions of dollars have
been squeezed out of people like me, and corporations maybe like yours,
to switch to Vista and Office 2007. But we won't get caught again.
Next time, we'll buy Apple and use Linux and web services. That's why
I've marked my Outlook calender to re-read this column in December
2012, as that's when Microsoft will make it's first ever corporate loss
in its history and the anti-Vista Tsunami will really be hitting the
bottom-line. That's if Outlook is still working by then. I can say this with some confidence as back in 1988, IBM were unbeatable. Back then, we all said: "You never get fired for buying IBM".
Then IBM made the largest losses in American corporate history in 1993
and almost went technically bankrupt. They got through it. Lou
Gerstner managed to show the elephant how to dance. But it's very easy
to sign your own death warrant if you continue to work in the same old
way when the world has changed around you. Back then, Microsoft
changed IBM's world. Today, Microsoft are the IBM of 1988, as Google,
Linux, Apple, Facebook and others are changing their world. Whilst
Microsoft spend billions on Xbox's and Halo's to beat Sony and
Nintendo, and continually attack Apple by producing an iPod styled
thing called Zune (which also wasn't compatible with Vista when Vista was first released),
their core business has been severely impacted by the release of not
only Vista, but Office 2007. This is not a good way to secure the
future. "That's why it'll never work, you'll have me suicidal, suicidal, suicidal..." Merry
Christmas Mr. Gates, Mr. Ballmer, Seattle and the Microsoft Empire. I
am so sorry that you made this strategic disaster happen. I am so
sorry you have potentially killed your core business. My only word of
advice is that you consider spending $15 billion of the profits you
make out of Vista in 2007 to buyout Facebook, as: My advice to everyone else is develop on Linux and go and buy Apple. p.s.
I know some of you love Vista, but that's because you have your very
own geek squad who shield you from many of these issues. This is why
you are using Windows XP and they've just told you it's Vista to make
you feel you're cool. p.p.s. this has little to do with banking.
It's more about business and life in general. But if any bankers or
vendors have any comments on Question (7): What impact is this having on business-to-business and business-to-consumer commerce? then post them here or let me know. Disclaimer:
Mr. Skinner has prayed at the Church of Microsoft religiously since the
1980's and is saddened to be converting to the Church of Latterday
Evengapples. He had his Baptism by buying an iPod (which he had to buy
because his old MP3 doesn't work with Vista) and is currently
undergoing pre-Communion classes by learning how easy it is to
seamlessly synchronise his iPod with iTunes. He has also been
impressed by the words of others, and his full Communion will occur in 2009, when he changes his PC for a Mac. Afterthought:
should any of the above prove to be factually incorrect such that
Microsoft consider suing Mr. Skinner's ass and taking the shirt off his
back, then all content provided is purely speculative, investments can
do down as well as up, and all sentences should be viewed as being
preceded by the words "allegedly", "purportedly", "supposedly" and
similar.
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